This new world would be quite different from the relative simplicity and nuclear-based stability of the bipolar Cold War world, as from the brief period of US dominance that followed it. 5 The current world economic and financial crisis has accelerated some of these trends. 2 Given these forecasts, it is no surprise that the US National Intelligence Council Report of November 2008 predicted the emergence by 2025 of a “multipolar world without multilateralism” 3 where “the wealth is moving not just from West to East but is concentrating more under state control”, 4 where “we are unlikely to see an overarching, comprehensive, unitary approach to global governance”, where “strategic rivalries are likely to revolve around trade, investment, technology innovation, and acquisition”, and where “increasing worries about resources – such as energy and water – could easily put the focus back on territorial disputes or unresolved border issues”.
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Goldman Sachs predicts that China’s economy will become the world’s largest around 2027 by 2050, the three largest economies in the world will be China out in front, with the US and India running neck and neck in second place Brazil, Mexico, Russia and Indonesia make up the rest of the front runners. Is Deng’s advice still valid? Is this a moment for the crouching tiger or will the dragon remain hidden? China’s rise and the changing balance of power The balance of power has shifted dramatically at least twice: from a bipolar system through a unipolar moment to a new balance of power where China is number two but rising fast. 1 Although only two decades have passed since 1989 the world of 2010 belongs to a new millennium and a different political dispensation.
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It was pragmatic Deng Xiaoping who, after the Tiananmen tragedy in 1989, when China was ostracized by the West, called his countrymen to “observe developments soberly, maintain our position, meet challenges calmly, hide our capacities and bide our time, remain free of ambition, never claim leadership”. In this respect as in others, Russia, like the US, is part of the West, a European outpost, though a very special one. In that respect, China is somewhat different from the United States or Russia, both of which are so impatient to achieve their goals that they often ignore the detail in which the devil resides.
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Dr Yang’s interest in Estonia was dictated not only by his desire to be polite towards a native Estonian, but also by the fact that for the world’s most populous country and rising global power, even small details are significant. His interest in our small country was in marked contrast to that of my western counterparts, who frequently spent more time discussing matters related to our big neighbour Russia than Estonian problems. Although I was a professor at King’s College, London at the time, Dr Yang, who was evidently familiar with my background, asked me about Estonia, its foreign policy priorities, investment potential and so on. Taking the long viewĪ couple of years ago I had a long conversation with the director of Shanghai’s Institute for International Studies, Dr Yang Jiemian. With the caveat that such an approach is itself somewhat over-simplified since it cannot take account of such variables as the impact of Islam, challenges of climate change, food, water and energy shortages, and demographic problems, let us consider how the peaceful rise of China may affect the most populous country on our planet as well as the rest of the world. As the world’s two major poles, they have come to stand for the two opposing worlds of “West” and “East”, and the main competing – or possibly complementary – visions of the future. However, in all analyses of current trends and possible scenarios for the future – which for the lack of a better methodology are usually extrapolations from the present – two actors, the United States of America and the Peoples Republic of China, are present in practically all spheres and in most geographical regions.
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Depending on the sphere of action or the region, these poles may include different actors. One current world trend is towards the formation of a multipolar international system where existing and emerging poles cooperate and compete with each other in various spheres and regions. As a result, this period can be characterized as the triumph of ideas over reality, a thought that may go some way to explaining why this period was comparatively short. In a way, the two competing ideologies – liberal-democratic capitalism and communism – imposed a simplistic blueprint on the world and managed, however briefly, to squeeze the world into a Procrustian bed formed of these competing ideologies. This remains true even though we now know this bipolar world concealed and suppressed underlying complexities. Ours is an age of complexity and unpredictability in stark contrast to the recent Cold War period of relative simplicity and certainty.